WINTER’S CRYSTAL BALL

WHAT THE MODELS, AND THE CATERPILLARS, SAY ABOUT BC SNOW FOR 2025-2026

If you’ve been refreshing NOAA charts like they’re Instagram stories, you’re not alone. Every September, sledders start squinting at acronyms like ENSO, PDO, and MJO, hoping they’ll spell out a season of waist-deep powder and endless bluebird days. Weather models do matter — but they’re not the only ones predicting our winter. Around here, we like to balance science with a little backcountry folklore.

THE SCIENCE BIT: ENSO, EL NIÑO, AND ALL THAT JAZZ

This winter starts with ENSO sitting neutral, but the models are hinting at a weak La Niña sliding in by fall. NOAA puts the odds at about 70% for Oct–Dec, then closer to a coin flip as we roll into mid-winter. Translation? Storm tracks and jet streams could shuffle more than usual — not the locked-in patterns of a classic El Niño or La Niña, but enough to keep riders guessing.

So what does that mean for BC? Seasonal outlooks lean toward above-average precipitation in the Interior and Rockies mid-winter, a milder, snowline-sensitive coast, and colder, storm-fueled patterns up north.

If these signals hold, sledders can expect:

Coast Range: Some warmer storms, but alpine elevations should still deliver the goods.
Interior & Columbia Ranges: Strong odds of consistent dumps mid-season — Jan–Feb looks prime for big days.
Northern BC: Cold, storm-loaded, and one of the most reliable bets for sled fuel this year.
Rockies (Central & South): Solid powder cycles by mid-winter, though depth and timing will be more variable than in the Interior.

Meteorologist Chris Tomer is reading it much the same: La Niña fingerprints early, trending neutral later. He highlights the Interior and Northern BC as the real winners this year, with the coast snow-line sensitive and the Rockies shaping up for solid mid-winter runs.

BEYOND THE MODELS

Forecast models are solid, but they’ll never guarantee hero snow on every ride. And that’s where we like to turn to the other experts — the signs in nature that mountain folks have trusted for generations.

THE OTHER FORECAST: NATURE’S POWDER PROPHETS

Long before satellites and supercomputers, sledders (well, their grandparents) looked for winter clues in the wild. And honestly? They’re still more fun to talk about at the cabin.

Woolly Bear Caterpillars: Their stripes are the original long-range forecast. More black? Supposedly a harsher winter. More yellow? A mellow one. This fall in parts of BC, they’re showing off some serious dark fuzz. Coincidence? Maybe. But admit it — it’s more fun to spot a caterpillar than to decode a spaghetti model.
Mountain Ash Trees: Heavy berry crop = tough winter ahead, or so the saying goes. Of course, the trees seem to load up almost every year — so either we’re doomed to endless powder, or it’s just nature keeping the birds happy.
Squirrels: Their stash game is legendary. When they’re going full tilt with the hoarding, locals take it as a sign the snow’s coming in hard. Consider it backcountry beta, bushy-tailed edition.
Hornets’ Nests: The higher the hornets build, the nastier the winter. Low nests? Supposedly a milder ride. Either way, it’s a forecast best admired from a safe distance.
Beaver Lodges: Thick walls of mud and sticks mean the beavers are betting on a long, brutal winter. A slapdash build? Maybe they’re calling for an early spring. Beaver intel: as core as it gets.
Almanacs: The Farmer’s Almanac is calling for “cold and snowy” in Western Canada. That’s about as specific as “sledding is fun,” but hey — it’s tradition, and every now and then, they nail it.

WHY WE LOVE BOTH

At the end of the day, sledders don’t really need a forecast to get hyped. Whether the models point to a neutral ENSO with above-average snow, or a woolly bear caterpillar flashes its black stripes, the stoke is the same: winter is coming, and BC is the place to ride.